Karzai's Default Win Saps Afghan Democracy

KABUL (Nov. 2) -- Hamid Karzai was declared the winner of Afghanistan's presidential election after opponent Abdullah Abdullah's tearful decision to pull out under protest. Karzai's victory by default douses U.S. hopes that voting would convey legitimacy on Afghanistan's inefficient and corrupt government, and some Afghan observers say it leaves democracy there more threatened than ever.

Abdullah on Sunday announced his withdrawal from the since canceled Nov. 7 run-off in a large tent on the outskirts of Kabul, where hundreds of his supporters gathered wearing traditional clothing befitting an important occasion and waving blue campaign flags. His move came as no surprise after his earlier calls went unheeded for the country's top election officials to be fired for their role in the first-round August election, in which more than 1 million fraudulent ballots were cast for Karzai.

Abdullah's pull-out was also seen as a face-saving measure aimed at avoiding a widely expected landslide defeat to Karzai. "I did it with a lot of pain but with a lot of hope for the future," said Abdullah, suggesting that he may be reserving a political role for himself down the line.

The former foreign minister's more immediate expectations seemed less positive. "The country is faced with enemies that don't believe in the democratic process," Abdullah said. "I will let Mr. Karzai figure it out for himself."

U.S. and international forces here can breathe a temporary sigh of relief knowing that they won't be tasked with ensuring the safety of voters and polling stations against Taliban attacks. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had publicly called for the election to be canceled so that British soldiers might not die needlessly to protect polling stations in an election with a certain outcome. American officials were working behind the scenes toward the same result.

But in the longer term, the advantages of this outcome are less clear. Karzai's promises of security and development during his five-year tenure in office have gone largely unfulfilled, leaving many Afghans questioning the value of a democratic process. Many see that process as one introduced by foreigners with little understanding of the challenges of governing a country deeply fractured along ethnic and tribal lines. Since Karzai was voted into office in 2004, the Taliban have wrested control of an estimated 80 percent of Afghan territory.

"This government is deep into corruption, and every day it is deteriorating," said Ahmad Wali Massoud, an Abdullah adviser and the brother of deceased Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud. "I don't know what kind of legitimacy the Karzai government can have."

Before Abdullah's decision, the Obama administration seemed keen on seeing the electoral process continue as an exercise in democratic institutions. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton insisted that his pull-out would have no effect on the legitimacy of Afghanistan's electoral process.

However, Afghan observers seem less sure about the prospects of democracy taking hold in Afghanistan amid waning faith in the Karzai government's ability to rule justly for all Afghans, not just the Pashtuns who largely back the president.

"This election merely helps in the failure of the process of democratization in Afghanistan," said Waliullah Rahmani, executive director of the Kabul Center for Strategic Studies. "The legitimacy of the Karzai government will be in question for the next five years."

Rahmani expressed a note of frustration with the international community, which he accused of accepting the results of a fraud-ridden election -- and by extension, a corrupt Karzai government -- in the name of promoting democracy in Afghanistan.

"Whether democracy can survive under these conditions for another five years we shall see," he said.