Opinion: Voters to Governors -- Beware

(Nov. 4) -- There has been a lot of talk about the elections of 2009 as a national referendum on the presidency of Barack Obama. But the real message voters sent Tuesday is that it's a lousy time to be a governor. And with 37 governorships up for grabs next year, this can have major implications for the political landscape and even future presidential candidates.

When the economy is good, state treasuries are flush and governors can cut taxes or adopt new programs without much difficulty. But when times are tough, governors are forced to present balanced budgets with spending cuts and tax increases. Clearly this hurt Jon Corzine in New Jersey and, to a lesser extent, Creigh Deeds in Virginia, who sought to follow two Democratic governors.

In 2010, the majority of governorships are up for election -- with Democrats holding 19 and Republicans 18 -- and the electoral atmosphere for incumbents is likely to be as poor as it is today.

Because of term limits or voluntary retirements, there will likely be more than 20 open races, which makes them more likely to change party hands. Many of the remaining 17 or so incumbent governors who choose to run again will run with low approval ratings caused by budget fights and scarcity of resources.

In short, 2010 looks like a time for significant turnover in governorships. The implications of this are significant.

For Democrats who are in power in Washington, a new class of governors can provide the party with an "outside the Beltway" message. And governors make good future Senate and presidential candidates -- in fact, 2008 was the first presidential election since 1972 where neither major party nominee was a governor.

For the party out of power, in this case Republicans, winning governorships can point the way back to winning the White House. In 1994, the same year that Republicans swept a majority into Congress, they dominated gubernatorial races, picking up 10 governorships. While congressional Republicans were seen as in perpetual conflict with President Bill Clinton, GOP governors were pragmatic, non-Washington reformers, enacting welfare and education reforms that greatly influenced federal policymakers. One of the class of 1994 -- George W. Bush -- ran for president on a reform record in Texas.

When some are wondering whether there is a message beyond tea party opposition, governors may provide that more pragmatic vision.

Tuesday's gubernatorial elections and the ones to come in 2010 won't only affect the next four years in a particular state, they may plant the seeds for the next political generation on the national stage.