(Nov. 5) -- Not that anyone's complaining, but as hurricane seasons go, this one has been pretty wimpy.
Ida reached hurricane strength off Nicaragua's east coast Thursday morning, becoming only the third Atlantic hurricane of the year. It's the first named storm since Tropical Storm Henri in early October.
The biggest threat from Ida is "horrific rainfall" as the slow-moving storm crosses the mountainous terrain of eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. He predicted the area could get 15 to 20 inches of rain during the day and a half Ida is over land.
"You get that kind of rain, you're going to get life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," Feltgen warned.
NOAA / National Hurricane Center
This satellite image shows Hurricane Ida over Nicaragua on Thursday morning.
More: Latest on Ida | NOAA.gov | AOL Weather
Ida will likely weaken to a tropical depression by the time it crosses into the northwest Caribbean. Feltgen wouldn't rule out the possibility that it would "rekindle as a tropical storm" but said it should be "no big concern" for people along the Gulf Coast of the U.S.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a "near or below average" 2009 season, with four to seven hurricanes. There have been two "major hurricanes" of Category 3 or above -- Bill and Fred -- but neither got anywhere near the Atlantic Coast. There were eight hurricanes last year and six in 2007. The last time there were only three Atlantic hurricanes in a season was 1997.
Why so few this year? Two words: El Nino.
That's what forecasters call the periodic warming of the waters off Peru's coast, which affects weather patterns worldwide. On the Atlantic side, El Nino increases wind shear in the areas of the tropical basin where storms develop, Feltgen said. The wind tears the tops off storms that might otherwise become hurricanes. That's what happened to Danny and Erika this year, Feltgen said.
The effect is different on the Pacific side, where tropical cyclone activity is near or above average this year. There have been 17 named storms in the eastern north Pacific, including seven hurricanes. Rick, which formed off Mexico's Pacific Coast in mid-October, was the second-strongest hurricane on record in the area.
Another factor in the relatively quiet Atlantic season has been dry air in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere that got pulled into the circulation of storms and "wiped them out," according to Feltgen.
Although a few weeks are still left in the 2009 season, Feltgen is already getting questions about next year.
"We have no idea what will happen in the 2010 season yet," he said. NOAA will issue its forecast in May. While there's "no direct relationship between what happens from one year to the following year," Feltgen doesn't expect 2010 to be much different.
"We remain in this active hurricane cycle which began back in 1995," he said. "Those cycles tend to last 20, 30 sometimes 40 years," he said
"This is not a global warming issue. These cycles have been going on a long time," Feltgen added.
The hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30. Until then, Feltgen advised, keep an eye on storm forecasts, and don't raid your hurricane supplies.
"It's not over till it's over."
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